Gallup polls have released polls over the last couple of weeks showing Obama support rising faster than 2008 levels. In 2008, Obama received an estimated 78% of the vote, growing from 66% in a Gallup poll taken in the August before the election, rising to 69% in September. The Jerusalem Post reported an unreleased Gallup poll in September showing 70% American Jewish support for Obama (an AJC poll reported 65% support, putting it within the margin of error of the 2008 poll). What is even more telling is that Romney remains mired at 24% with undecided voters leaning toward Obama 63-27. The Jewish Republican vote in this country is estimated to be around 24%. UPDATE: AJC just released two polls showing Obama leading amongst Jews in Florida 69-25 and in Ohio 64-29.
Jewish voters constitute at least 2% of the vote in battleground states such as Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada. Making them a crucial voting block.
No matter how you cut it, the RJC’s purported “Jewish flight to Romney” does not seem to be taking place. Romney’s apparent softened stance on taking military action against Iran, has disheartened hawks as his position now almost exactly mirrors the President’s, including agreeing that the only “red line” would be Iran getting a nuclear weapon.
Even amongst Israelis, the alleged disparity in support for Obama and Romney does not seem to be as deep as claimed, with a recent Hebrew University of Jerusalem Truman Poll of Israelis showed that 34% of Israelis believe that Romney would be better for Israel, as compared to 26% for Obama (20% did not know and the rest were undecided).
Meanwhile, the Obama Administration has continued to talk with the Israeli government, with the President and the Secretary of State talking three times with the Prime Minister over the past week (once before the UN General Assembly, and twice afterward (Clinton had a 75-minute face to face meeting, and Obama by phone). The President and Prime Minister have continued to work closely on Iran policy.
Israeli officials have already effusively praised Obama’s heightened security cooperation, including Deputy Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon (Ysrael Beteinu party), who said that “Israel has no better friend than Obama”, Defense Minister Ehud Barak (Labor), telling CNN that “This administration under President Obama is doing in regard to our security more than anything that I can remember in the past.” and even Israeli President Shimon Peres has praised the United States’ quick response in rescuing Israeli consulate workers under siege in Egypt, improving security cooperation and providing investment and munitions to support Israeli security such as accelerated investment in the anti-rocket “David’s Sling” and “Iron Dome” systems and providing advanced fighter technology.
Iran has seen 300% inflation and currency devaluation as its economy has continued to suffer under the sanctions initiated by the Obama Administration, with improved support from the EU and even somewhat by China and Russia.
Romney has seen divisions in his foreign policy teams between the head of his foreign policy group, the pro-Arabist Robert Zoellick (allied with President G.H.W. Bush Secretary of State James Baker) and former Iraq Spokesman Dan Senor who has been relegated to following around VP Paul Ryan after getting out ahead of Romney by advocating a military strike against Iran (Romney backed away from that statement last week). He has also been criticized for investing in Iran and China while advocating for harder policies against them should he be elected and for choosing to stay clear of efforts to confront rogue LDS members who “retroactively converted” Nazi Holocaust victims.
Andrew Lachman 